A seleção de atletas de elite desde cedo: reflexão a partir da perspectiva de sistemas complexos
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Resumo
Objetivo: O objetivo deste estudo foi verificar se o comportamento identificado em pesquisas anteriores também ocorre entre os melhores atletas do mundo de todos os tempos que competem na prova de 100 metros.
Materiais e métodos: Para isso, e com base na análise das classificações oficiais de todos os tempos para homens e mulheres da Associação Internacional de Federações de Atletismo na prova supracitada, foram utilizadas amostras em categoria absoluta (Top-1.000 até 31/12 /2018) e sub-20 (Top-100 até 31/12/2003); Leis de potência e outras estratégias típicas de sistemas complexos foram aplicadas para analisar os dados.
Resultados: Os resultados mostram como, muitas vezes, os melhores corredores masculinos e femininos do mundo na categoria sub-20 não evoluem positivamente durante o resto de sua carreira esportiva, melhorando seus registros nas categorias superiores. Apenas 51 homens dos 100 melhores corredores sub-20 de todos os tempos conseguiram melhorar seus tempos quando chegaram à categoria sênior, e as melhorias nem sempre mostraram progressões estatisticamente significativas. Consequentemente, um investimento excessivo em recursos humanos e materiais para identificar indivíduos com altas habilidades atléticas nem sempre é a melhor estratégia.
Conclusões: o esporte de nível em idade precoce pode ser um erro metodológico que deve ser evitado na construção das reservas esportivas de um país ou federação esportiva.
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